New poll numbers

There are a lot of polls today. First, McCaskill (D) is leading Talent (R) by nine points in Mo Senatorial race. The seat has been taken as toss-up by lots of analysts before this nine-point lead. Maybe it should be classified as Democratic-leaning now.

Second, Menendez (D) is leading Kean (R) in a Quinnipiac poll by 4 points. That may say Menendez is actually leading by 7, according to the Quinnipiac polls on gubernatorial last year and presidential in 2004.

In Ohio, Brown (D) has a 14 points lead against DeWine (R). I personally think Brown will win the seat.

There are a lot of House races polls today. There are 37 polls on 35 districts. 11 races are rated "Safe Republican" by NY Times, in which Democrats are leading in 3 (AZ-01, NC-08, OH-02), tie in 3 (IA-01, KY-03, NY-03). In the 7 NYT Leaning Rep. races, Dems. are leading in 1 (MN-06) and tie in 4 (MN-01, KY-04, NJ-07, WI-08). In the 14 Toss-up races, Dems. lead in 10, tie in 4. As in the 5 leaning Dem races, Rep. only ties in 1 (CO-07). If the trend holds, Democrats are leading in 223 seats, which is a five-seat majority even losing all the tie races.