How Allen campaign responds to an "inappropriate" question

UPDATE: TPM has the victim saying he'll press charges against Allen and his staffers.

You must see this. It's crazy. I can understand their being not too happy about it, but, for the sake of First Amendment, can't they be slightly more gentle?

New polls today

One week to Midterm, and it looks like Democrats need a little more to regain Senate. Menendez is leading in all three polls released today, 51 - 44 in CNN, 49 - 43 in Zogby Interactive (which I don't have deep faith), and 49 - 44 in Quinnipiac. Now I project Menendez to carry NJ by 7-8 points. It also looks good in Virginia, where Webb is leading in all three most recent polls, 51 - 47 in Zogby Interactive, 50 - 46 in CNN, and 51 - 46 in Rassmussen. I told you Bush went to Virginia. Missouri is very hard to tell. In CNN poll, McCaskill leads 51 - 49 in registered voters, trals 47 - 49 in likely voters, seems turn-out is the key. The I-don't-quite-believe Zogby Interactive says McCaskill trails 47 - 49, and research 2000 (Oct 29) said ties at 47. Survey USA has McCaskill leads 49-46. Tennessee doesn't look bad, just not that encouraging. Ford trails in both CNN and Zogby Interactive, 44 - 52 and 48 - 49 each. Does that mean the racial ads by Republicans are working?

NY Post endorses Clinton

Although it's sort of known that there is no competetion over there, it's still a surprise to me. Apparently I'm not alone.

The New York Post endorsed Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for re-election on Monday, saying her Republican challenger, John Spencer, "isn't a credible alternative."

"Surprised? Well, so are we — a little," said the editorial in the Post, which has a conservative editorial page. "But, then, there really isn't much of a choice in this race."

Have you heard the jungle drums?

Bob Corker approved a message while his opponent is mentioned, there is a jungle drum sound in the background. Oh, so I know Ford must be an Africa American? Is that why? Geez....

Whew....again. This time it's real

Since I saw the decision of Lewis v. Harris to be out today at 3pm, I couldn't really set myself in peace for a minute. I surely want to win the case, but I'm also so much afraid of losing Senate, and a ruling in favor of gay marriage may just do the trick to turn out the conservative voters. Although the ruling doesn't explicitly require the legislature to legalize gay marriage, as Vermont did in 1999, it requires the state to offer all the benefits of civil marriage to same-sex couples, which is a positive ruling which won't make people enthusiastic about it. Don't take me wrong -- I'm for full marriage equality and against seperate-but-equal -- but this decision doesn't require the legislature to create something bizarre called civil union, nor does it say anywhere that a civil union statue is constitutional. I think it's good enough for such a decision handed out two weeks before the election.

You can read my full legal analysis here.

Webb ahead of Allen for the first time

I told you so.

In Virginia, Democrat James Webb led Republican Sen. George Allen, 47% to 44%

It's within the counting error, but I still take it as something serious. What I worry about is the ruling on Wednesday, since Virginia is one of the states with an amendment referendum and competitive senate seat at the same time.

Whew....uh....wait....

UPDATE: Now they say 3PM tomorrow. Doesn't look good to me.





Today on NJ Judiciary

I guess we just saved a "nuclear bomb" before the election.

$800M gone in Iraq

Is not a number for how much US spent, which is much larger, but basically been stolen. That's a huge amout.

Iraq's former finance minister alleged in a U.S. television report that up to $800 million meant to equip the Iraqi army had been stolen from the government by former officials through fraudulent arms deals.

The former minister, Ali Allawi, told CBS' "60 Minutes" that $1.2 billion had been allocated from the Iraqi treasury to the defense ministry to buy new weapons. About $400 million was spent on outdated equipment, while the rest of the money was simply stolen, he said in the interview, which aired Sunday.

If they decided to split a very small portion of that money into scientific research, maybe I don't need to TA now. I first saw the news on AMERICAblog but didn't go deep into it since I was in a rush to attend the curriculum meeting.

Menendez leads with 9 points in Monmouth poll

Seems it's a consensus that Kean did nothing impressive in the debates. I don't know how reliable this poll is, but it certainly looks good.

The latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll shows Menendez's lead at nine percentage points. Nearly half of the likely voters, 48 percent, said they would vote for Menendez, while 39 percent said they would vote for Kean.

Menendez's voters are more committed to him, as 37 percent of likely voters said they were sure they would vote for Menendez, up nine points since September. Fewer than 3 in 10 said they were sure they would vote for Kean, unchanged since September.

The Monmouth/Gannett poll also showed that two-thirds of the voters believe the campaign has been too negative. Although most blamed both Kean and Menendez for the tone, nearly 30 percent blamed Kean more, while 16 percent blamed Menendez.

About the debates

Michael P. Riccards, executive director of the Hall Institute, a public policy think tank in Trenton, said Kean has not done a good job of explaining his positions in television and radio appearances.

"Kean is not terribly articulate," Riccards said.

"I think he had a terrible time in that radio debate a few days ago. He's expressed his one view, which is on the ethics question."

Sometimes I get very confused with this guy

First of all, why is Bush having a TV interview with a rainbow like stuff on the background? And, what the hell is that "we've never been stay the course?"

Obama may run for 2008

Is he the next Bill Clinton?

The Illinois Democrat said he could no longer stand by the statements he made after his 2004 election and earlier this year that he would serve a full six-year term in Congress. He said he would not make a decision until after the Nov. 7 elections.

“Given the response I’ve been getting the last several months, I have thought about the possibility” although not with any seriousness or depth, he said. “My focus is on ‘06. ... After November 7, I’ll sit down and consider it.”

Bush: I have no secret plan

Just yesterday, Republican Sen. Burns (Mont.) said he believed Bush has a secret plan for victory in Iraq.

Montana Republican Conrad Burns is on record as saying the U-S needs to stay in Iraq until the war is won. At a debate this week, though, he said the U-S needs to change its tactics as the enemy does. Still, it was his mention of a Bush plan that Democrats are pouncing on. He told his opponent, "There is a plan. We're not going to tell you."

The problem is, just today, Bush said we should keep doing the same thing.

President Bush conceded Friday that "right now it's tough" for American forces in Iraq, but the White House said he would not change U.S. strategy in the face of pre-election polls that show voters are upset.

I don't know how you feel but in my opinion they contradict with each other.

NE-03 - Scott Kleeb (D)

There are two reasons you might want to watch the YouTube video, one is that you want to see how a Democrat runs a campaign in a super conservative Nebraska district; the other is you might just want to see a hot guy talking. Honestly I think he'll be at top of the sexiest politician list if elected. You can donate through here. AmericaBlog has a very "intersting" picture of his. I certainly like it, but I'm not sure how well it plays in such a conservative Nebraskan district.

Conservatives are pissed because....

There is another gay guy in the Bush administration. Even worse, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called his partner's mother his mother-in-law.

"We have to face the fact that putting a homosexual in charge of AIDS policy is a bit like putting the fox in charge of the henhouse," says Sprigg. "But even beyond that, the deferential treatment that was given not only to him but his partner and his partner's family by the Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is very distressing."

Sprigg says in light of the Foley scandal, "it's inexplicable that a conservative administration would do such things." He also notes that Rice's comments defy an existing law on the books protecting traditional marriage. "So, for her to treat his partner like a spouse and treat the partner's mother as a mother-in-law, which implies a marriage between the two partners, is a violation of the spirit if not the letter of the Defense of Marriage Act," the FRC spokesman states.

I still don't quite understand why they take the whole gay thing so seriously. I mean, statistically, gay people are only couple percentage of the whole population, and there is nearly no way for gays to really affect the supermajority by any sexual means. So why bother? Even if you think it's wrong, it's not a disease which is contagious, and gay people don't procreate (oh, the central holding of Hernandez v. Robles), so it won't spread genetically either, so what else do you want? (BTW I do believe there will be a way for gay couples to have genetic children. I don't know how, but that doesn't seem totally impossible to me. Maybe I should think of that more after my PhD degree?)

Which state to decide the Senate majority

It's obvious that Democrats have to gain 6 seats to obtain the majority. Now Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island are in very good position for pick-ups, Missouri and Tennessee are also in good chance for pick-ups, and holding on New Jersey doesn't seem a real problem, Democrats are having the best chance in years to regain the majority. Some people start to worry about Connecticut, since Lieberman is now receiving so much Republican resources, he may not vote as a Democrat if re-elected. This worry got worsen after he declined to say any good word of Dem winning the House, nor did he say he'll support the Dem governor candidate.

"Uh, I haven't thought about that enough to give an answer," Lieberman said, as though Democrats' strong prospects for recapturing the House hadn't been the fall's top political story.

He was similarly elusive about the race for governor. Is he voting for John DeStefano Jr., a Democrat and mayor of the city where Lieberman has lived since the 1960s?

"I'm, uh, I'm having," he stammered, then laughed and said his decision would remain private.

He's now creating a real fear on the blogsphere that he might defect.
I actually agree with the accessment, and that's why I think Dem should put more resources into Virginia. By looking at the polls, Webb is closer to Allen than Lamont to Lieberman. Since Bush was with Allen recently, I believe Virginia will be classified as toss-up very soon (remember 2005?).

Another gay Republican Congressman - page story

I personally don't see it as a huge deal but US Attorney in Arizona is apparently interested in that.

Federal prosecutors in Arizona have opened a preliminary investigation of a camping trip Congressman Jim Kolbe, R-Ariz., took 10 years ago that included two teenage congressional pages, a Justice Department spokesman told NBC News.

National Park Service employees also were on the three-day trip, along with several Kolbe staffers and the congressman's sister. Kolbe, the only openly gay Republican legislator in both houses of Congress, had not acknowledged his homosexuality publicly at the time.

NBC News interviewed several people who were on the trip, and their accounts vary. One participant, who requested anonymity, said he was uncomfortable with the attention Kolbe paid to one of the former pages. He was "creeped out by it," he said, adding that there was a lot of "fawning, petting and touching" on the teenager's arms, shoulders and back by Kolbe.

NBC also interviewed the two former pages, who are now in their late 20s. One of them said that Kolbe was a gentleman and never acted in an improper fashion. He recalled that the pair spent time in Kolbe's house at one point — and briefly were alone with him on the trip — and that Kolbe always acted professionally and decently.

However, the former page — who is the one to whom Kolbe allegedly paid special attention — said he had a "blast" on the trip and did not report anything improper to his parents or any House officials after the trip. He said he has a favorable impression of the page program to this day and likes Kolbe.

New poll numbers

There are a lot of polls today. First, McCaskill (D) is leading Talent (R) by nine points in Mo Senatorial race. The seat has been taken as toss-up by lots of analysts before this nine-point lead. Maybe it should be classified as Democratic-leaning now.

Second, Menendez (D) is leading Kean (R) in a Quinnipiac poll by 4 points. That may say Menendez is actually leading by 7, according to the Quinnipiac polls on gubernatorial last year and presidential in 2004.

In Ohio, Brown (D) has a 14 points lead against DeWine (R). I personally think Brown will win the seat.

There are a lot of House races polls today. There are 37 polls on 35 districts. 11 races are rated "Safe Republican" by NY Times, in which Democrats are leading in 3 (AZ-01, NC-08, OH-02), tie in 3 (IA-01, KY-03, NY-03). In the 7 NYT Leaning Rep. races, Dems. are leading in 1 (MN-06) and tie in 4 (MN-01, KY-04, NJ-07, WI-08). In the 14 Toss-up races, Dems. lead in 10, tie in 4. As in the 5 leaning Dem races, Rep. only ties in 1 (CO-07). If the trend holds, Democrats are leading in 223 seats, which is a five-seat majority even losing all the tie races.

White House made it very clear Foley had to run

Didn't know such kind of decision goes to White House. According to a friend of Foley's, he had decided not to run for reelection until White House forced him to.

According to the source, Foley said he was being pressured by "the White House and Rove gang," who insisted that Foley run. If he didn't, Foley was told, it might impact his lobbying career.

"He said, 'The White House made it very clear I have to run,'" explains Foley's friend, adding that Foley told him that the White House promised that if Foley served for two more years it would "enhance his success" as a lobbyist. "I said, 'I thought you wanted out of this?' And he said, 'I do, but they're scared of losing the House and the thought of two years of Congressional hearings, so I have two more years of duty.'"

This is how Kean respects the wounded soldiers?

Gee, this is a bit unusual.

What's surprising is that Kean is pressing back. Politicians usually fawn over victims, showing them ritualistic respect and promising to take their views seriously.

Kean is playing offense instead.

He's refusing to answer some of the questions put to him by the families. He says he will not visit wounded soldiers during the campaign, even privately.

And now, he is accusing the families of conspiring with his Democratic opponent, U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez.

The only problem is they are not

But Sohl insists that she was acting spontaneously and was part of no conspiracy. Menendez' press secretary even discouraged her from approaching Kean, she says.

Tucker Carlson: The Republicans hate evangelicals

Tucker Carlson has been one of a few conservatives I might listen to on tv for a while. The reason used to be his look, but now I add another one, which is his being brutally honest.

CARLSON: It goes deeper than that though. The deep truth is that the elites in the Republican Party have pure contempt for the evangelicals who put their party in power. Everybody in ...

MATTHEWS: How do you know that? How do you know that?

CARLSON: Because I know them. Because I grew up with them. Because I live with them. They live on my street. Because I live in Washington, and I know that everybody in our world has contempt for the evangelicals. And the evangelicals know that, and they're beginning to learn that their own leaders sort of look askance at them and don't share their values.

MATTHEWS: So this gay marriage issue and other issues related to the gay lifestyle are simply tools to get elected?

CARLSON: That's exactly right. It's pandering to the base in the most cynical way, and the base is beginning to figure it out.

And here is the video.

Is Reynolds' seat in danger at all?

UPDATE: Polls show Dem. challenger leading.


Last time (right after the Foley story broke out) I checked with the New York Times rating it (NY-26) was still Safe Rep, now it's a toss-up. Gee, that changes fast. I thought about taking a look after reading this.

More trouble for Allen

Some sources say the Virginia race is tight, some say it's not. Either way I guess after this news the consensus will be it is a tight race.

For the past five years, Sen. George Allen, has failed to tell Congress about stock options he got for his work as a director of a high-tech company. The Virginia Republican also asked the Army to help another business that gave him similar options.

Congressional rules require senators to disclose to the Senate all deferred compensation, such as stock options. The rules also urge senators to avoid taking any official action that could benefit them financially or appear to do so.

Those requirements exist so the public can police lawmakers for possible conflicts of interest, especially involving companies with government business that lawmakers can influence.

Allen's stock options date to the period from January 1998 to January 2001 when Allen was between political jobs and had plunged into the corporate world.

Kean received money from whom he tried to ban

Doesn't it remind you Mark Foley on pretending children from online predators? I just don't understand how it can all make sense at once. You either believe that's ok and do it, or believe it's wrong and not do it. You believe that's wrong -- and introduce a bill to outlaw it -- and then just did the same thing which should have been outlawed if your bill has passed, and then say it's all legal? I'm sorry but it really sounds hypocrisy to me.

Nearly two years ago, Republican state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. introduced a bill that would ban all donations by government contractors to state political candidates. He dubbed it "George's Law," after South Jersey Democratic political boss George Norcross III.

Since then, Kean, now the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, has accepted $213,025 from employees of the same firms he wanted to remove from the process: those doing business with the state or its authorities, a Star-Ledger analysis has found.

Foley's effects on election

Seems huge. 80% know about it and 25% less likely to vote for Republicans. The following quote from the article is interesting

"There's an old axiom in politics: never interfere with your opponents when they're in the process of committing suicide," said Larry Sabato, a political expert at the University of Virginia.

New poll numbers

As it goes closer and closer to the election, I guess more posts will be posted here. In summary, Democrats are leading in three GOP held Senate seats (Penn, RI and Mont), also two Dem held seats (NJ and Md), deadlock in two GOP held seats (Ohio and Tenn), and trailing in two GOP seats (Virginia and Missouri).

"Democrats for Kean": we didn't say we'll vote for him

I guess it's another coincidence that they just happened to be there?

The Republican candidate for U.S. Senate appeared alongside two people identified as "Democrats for Kean" yesterday in an effort to show he can attract voters of both parties. Trouble is, Tom Kean Jr. might not get the vote of either one.

Daisy Vega, a member of the parents' group Families United for Students of Elizabeth, said she was a lifelong registered Democrat who has never voted Republican. She said she had not yet made up her mind whether to vote for Kean or his Democratic opponent, Sen. Robert Menendez, on Nov. 7, be fore adding, "I've never crossed over before."

The other "Democrat for Kean," former Elizabeth Councilman Bob Jaspan, said he, too, had not yet decided whom to vote for in the Senate race. He said he "was asked to attend and say a few words about my feelings on corruption. I did not know the label of the press conference."

Frist: include Taliban in Afghan government

It's an idea crazy and cool at the same time. If it does work, that's surely a super cool idea, but the problem is it may end up like Vietnam.

The Tennessee Republican said he learned from briefings that Taliban fighters were too numerous and had too much popular support to be defeated on the battlefield.

"You need to bring them into a more transparent type of government," Frist said during a brief visit to a U.S. and Romanian military base in the southern Taliban stronghold of Qalat. "And if that's accomplished, we'll be successful."

He said the only way to win in places like the volatile southern part of the country is to "assimilate people who call themselves Taliban into a larger, more representative government."

"Approaching counterinsurgency by winning hearts and minds will ultimately be the answer," Frist said. "Military versus insurgency one-to-one doesn't sound like it can be won. It sounds to me ... that the Taliban is everywhere."

I pretty much agree that winning the hearts is the ultimate answer. But first, it may be called cut and run by some people. Second, the one who makes this decision may not like the idea. Oh....well....

Rice: no recollection of CIA warning

So it's now CIA didn't warn the right person about 911?

"What I am quite certain of is that I would remember if I was told, as this account apparently says, that there was about to be an attack in the United States, and the idea that I would somehow have ignored that I find incomprehensible," Rice said.

Rice was President Bush's national security adviser in 2001, when Bob Woodward's book "State of Denial" outlines a July 10 meeting among Rice, Tenet and the CIA's top counterterror officer.

September reading report

From AdSense. 155 impressions, which is so far the highest since I started the Ad service, peaked on 29th with 27, and 30th with 18. I believe lots of them are here for the Foley story . Also on those days are the NJ minimum wage news and the nasty senatorial campaign in NJ.